Ever had one of those weekends where every bet you place seems doomed? That was me this past weekend—just when I thought I had it all figured out, my long parlays blew up in my face. It wasn’t just one or two games falling short, it was a full-on disaster. Teams that should’ve cruised past their opponents barely squeaked by, and spreads that seemed like a lock? Forget about it!
You’d think that betting on heavy favorites would be safe, right? Wrong! In fact, this weekend reminded me of just how unpredictable sports betting can be, especially when you’re chasing those massive payouts from long parlays.
I use DraftKings as my go-to platform for sports betting. Their app is easy to use, and they offer a wide range of options, from single-game bets to multi-leg parlays. They even sent me a promotional offer this weekend, matching my deposit with bonus bets, which I used for all of my wagers. While it didn’t cost me any of my initial deposit, the frustration of coming up short was still there.
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Here’s a breakdown of how things went south for me, and more importantly, what I’ll be doing differently next time to stop the bleeding.
Saturday College Football Bets: A Disappointing Start
I had a five-leg parlay for college football on Saturday, with odds of +2437, and let’s just say it didn’t go well:
• Oregon -18.5 vs. Boise State: Oregon won, but only by 3 points, which was nowhere close to covering the spread.
• Alabama -30.5 vs. South Florida: Alabama should’ve blown out South Florida, but they only won by 26 points. Technically speaking 26 points could be considered a blow-out, but they still failed to cover the spread.
• Oklahoma -27.5 vs. Houston: Oklahoma won by just 4 points—yet another miss.
These teams were expected to dominate, but why didn’t they? It goes to show that no matter how heavily favored a team is, sports are unpredictable. Whether it’s complacency, injuries, or the underdogs stepping up, big teams don’t always cover the spread. This weekend was a perfect example of that.
The only two games I got right were Tennessee -9 vs. NC State, where Tennessee won by a huge 41 points, and Clemson -17 vs. Appalachian State, with Clemson dominating by 46 points. But that wasn’t enough to save my parlay.
NFL Sunday Bets: The Frustration Continues
Sunday wasn’t much better. I had another five-leg parlay for NFL games (with odds of +2405) that DraftKings pre-selected for me. Here’s how it played out:
• Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Miami won by only 3 points, so they didn’t cover the spread.
• Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals: The Bills clinched the win but fell short of the spread, winning by just 6 points.
• Houston Texans -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts: In another close game, the Texans won by only 2 points, once again leaving me short.
With those three games already losing, the rest of the parlay (which included Jets vs. 49ers and Lions vs. Rams) didn’t even matter.
What Went Wrong and How to Improve
So, what can I do better next time? After reflecting on this rough weekend, there are a few ways I can improve my betting strategy to increase my odds of winning:
1. Limit the Number of Legs in Parlays:
As tempting as it is to chase the big payout of a five-leg parlay, it’s clear that the more legs you include, the higher your chances of losing. A single slip-up can derail the whole bet. Going forward, I’ll focus on smaller parlays, maybe two or three legs at most, to reduce my risk while still keeping things exciting.
2. Avoid Betting on Extremely Large Spreads:
One of the biggest mistakes I made this weekend was betting on teams with huge spreads like Alabama (-30.5) and Oklahoma (-27.5). While these teams are heavy favorites, it’s tough for even the best teams to consistently win by that wide of a margin. Instead, I’ll look for closer matchups or moderate spreads where the favorite is more likely to cover.
3. Research Injuries and Team News:
Injuries and last-minute team changes can seriously affect a game’s outcome. Before placing my bets, I need to stay up to date on key player injuries and other team news. A star player sitting out can change the entire dynamic of the game and how likely a team is to cover the spread.
4. Shop for Better Lines:
DraftKings offers convenient odds and lines, but it’s not the only platform available. I’ll start comparing odds across other sites to make sure I’m getting the best value. Even a small difference in point spreads or odds can have a big impact on the outcome of my bets.
5. Consider Single Bets Instead of Parlays:
While parlays are fun and offer higher payouts, single bets are much safer. By focusing on one game at a time, I can increase my chances of winning instead of relying on multiple games to go my way. This weekend, I would have been better off just betting on the Tennessee and Clemson games individually instead of lumping them into a risky parlay.
Final Thoughts: Next Time, Less Risk
All of my parlays were made with bonus bets thanks to DraftKings’ deposit match, so luckily I didn’t lose any of my $50 deposit. Still, it’s a tough reminder that sports betting is unpredictable, and long parlays might offer bigger payouts but come with a much higher risk. Next time, I’ll probably stick to shorter parlays or maybe just focus on single bets to avoid the frustration of watching one team ruin a whole weekend of betting.
Here’s to a smoother weekend ahead and hopefully the Saints covering the spread and winning again!
Ralph